March 31, 2009
view about the recent financial crises
Let's have a look at 2006-2007. Continuing high levels of capital liquidity rest on flows from securitization and derivatives, and from dollar dominance in international trade. Neither source is immune to a violent adjustment. Why are global bond yields so low, despite the fact that central banks everywhere are increasing interest rates? The new sources of liquidity outside traditional monetary aggregates have absorbed much of the impact of rising short-term interest rates: namely securitized debt and the huge derivatives market. Once capital became more costly, the new liquidity contracted much more sharply than monetary aggregates have done in the past. So the resultant impact on asset prices was severe and the deflationary pressure enough to pitch the global economy into a recession.
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